Farmers, Modi and BJP
Bijan Kumar Sarkar, New Delhi.
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – the largest Global Political Party and which is ruling over India almost for the past seven years is going to Five State polls when there is no way for any individual leader and the nation is surrounded by a number of internal as well as external issues and to a great extent the party itself to be blamed for this present critical situation.
Over and above the BJP led Central Government is in deep water with the Farmers protest who were agitating for the past 100 days for the repeal of those three draconian farm laws which the farmers claimed that it would virtually made them bonded labourers in their own land, while the Government claims that these three laws are first step towards abruptly enhancing their income.
However, the farmers are not ready to accept this theory of the government. The farmers are now preparing themselves for a long-drawn political battle and the timeline could be the 2024 General Elections.
Under this situation, the farmers have now decided to visit all these five poll-bound states and hold their farmers Mahapanchayats to educate the farmers of those States about the possible effects of those three farm laws and its final implication over them.
They would also be requesting the farmers NOT TO VOTE FOR BJP in their respective States rather they should Elect that candidate who seems to be the Strongest against the BJP in those areas.
Whatever, be its effect but this much is certain that it would not help the BJP is garnering Votes for them even after making promises and laying Hundreds of Foundation Stones for future Projects.
Now, I will take up State by State case starting from Assam, where the party is currently ruling over the State and there are lots of dissenting among all sections of the society. Presently, in the 126 member assembly, BJP had 60 seats and its allies the Assam Gana Porishand 13 and One Independent formed the Government.
This is because as the Bengalee population is very keen that Citizens Amendment Act (CAA) should first be implemented and this should be followed by National Registration Certificate (NRC), while the people who originally came somewhere from present Thailand and later settled down here were initially known as ” Ahom” claimed themselves to be “Son of the Soil” and are keen to see that the NRC should immediately be implemented and no question of introducing the CAA in their State.
Since BJP failed to do anything in this regard so the party can not expect Vote from these two major communities and naturally the BJP’s vote share and the number of seats would come down substantially.
Knowing this the party is now trying to project and an intellectual, moderate and good administration and who is well accepted by all communities in the State as the possible Next Chief Ministerial candidate without naming him.
Now, it is too late for the party to recover its lost ground and as per the indications available, the party along with its allies could maximum secure 25 to 30 seats in the State. The party has already released its list of 70 candidates for Phase I and II polls which includes 11 new faces. The party will another list of candidates for the third phase and the balance would be left for its allies the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP). Here, The Congress with its Allies is expected to form a stable Government by securing anywhere between 91/96 seats
Second is Kerala -the Southern Most State of India where the party was able to secure one assembly seat and that too only once in 2016.
However, the party got a major boost when in February 2021 some 98 members from the Left Parties joined them. But to what extent it would benefit the party in the forthcoming assembly elections is yet to be seen.
It is a 140 member assembly and ground reports suggest that Left Front is much ahead informing the government.
Political observers were of the view that even with the presence of Metro Man is not going help the party in any way.
The third State is Puducherry, in the 30 member assembly the Congress party seems to enjoy a much better position and this was followed by Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and BJP could find itself in the third place
The fourth State that is going to polls in Tamil Nadu where 240 seats are at stake and BJP is nowhere in the picture, the party is heavily dependent on its Ally namely the AIDMK but the party has not yet been able to recover itself from the shock of the death of its leader.
DMK is definitely a confident player and they were expected to perform very well with its bunch of allies to form the Government.
Last but not least is the State of West Bengal where BJP is heavily dependent not on its own cadre but on all those who were recently been inducted in the BJP and significantly the majority of them one time or the other were been abused by the BJP on various grounds.
Another important aspect that in BJP every one is a leader so the party is hard-pressed for workers and asked its various State UNITS to send preferably Bengali workers or volunteers and the party hopes to win and form the Government with those players whom the people don’t want.
BJP which won 18 Lok Sabha Seats in 2019 General Elections primarily on account of the shift of LEFT Front Votes and with the HOLDING of Such Massive rally jointly by LEFT with Congress and a new Secular Front. The more votes they the chances of BJP’s vote Bank sharp declining would be directly proportional and under these events the party can not expects to win more than 80 Seats. Rather it would be anywhere between 70 to 85 seats.
The Left with its allies were expected to score anywhere between 30 to 34 seats.
The ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) is expected to win anywhere between 160 to 190 seats.
The picture could be more worse for BJP if the proposed Farmers leaders could really held their Farmers Panchayat from April 2 and convinced the Farmers in the respective States not to vote for BJP in that event the game will be altogether different. (Pic courtesy Republicworld.com)
